Excel Spread Sheet Statistics and the IWM

With calculating expected earning on a stock by calculating the mean profits per day for a certain term we know where we expect the price to be based on history. Now you also can only add the positive days, or for the sake of this exercise take only negative days, and we receive what I call worst case scenarios. Then we can also calculate the Average True Range of an asset and generate a 4 week price target of that. When you look at AFTER 4 WEEKS in the image we have three prices. Then we generate the average of this and have a price target where the stock SHOULD NOT BE within 4 weeks! Then we subtract the current price of the underlaying from that and we get the Deviation from the price. We then look up how many times in the past year a deviation of 18 from the price was hit within 4 weeks and calculate the probability of those occurrences. The calculated deviation of the STRIKE of the short call was hit 3.08%. This means that when you write a call option at that level your win ratio is about 97%!