Thursday, August 26, 2021

AMC update 8/25/21 and Why do I choose options as level indicators?

I was impressed that the Ape Army could actually gather enough apes to initiate a March on Rome. They had more success than expected. But as I said, if they can gather the needed trading volume, above average, for at least 2-3 days they can drive the price above $40. And that is what they did. on last Monday they traded 260,000 option contracts and on Monday and Tuesday they traded 1 million and 1,2 million respectively. Look at the "Open Interests". These are the levels.

The funniest trade I saw was the buying of the $80 Strike long Calls with expiring this Friday. The price they paid for 9,700 contracts was about $800,000. Quiet a pricy bet.

Why do I choose options as level indicators?

If you following option trades on a daily base you can establish which options are bought and how many at which levels. You also know where the Market Maker Sweet Spots are. You also can see kind of into the future by determine how many options are bought with a longer term and at which levels. Those levels disappear with expiration date. Not all but many. And you can see what the sentiment is by comparing the Call to Put Ratio over weeks and which options have a longer term. You will see the turning point.

For example, AMC walked through the $40 level on Tuesday. The $40 level was a ceiling /resistance level with a lot of Call options. Now, while with shares I do not know where people set their Stop Loss, or Take Profit, with options I know their Strike Price and open interest volume since they are derivatives. Knowing for every call contract there are 100 shares, and assuming there are logical and psychological levels where people put their SL or TP points I further assume those levels are identical. They are increments of 5 or 10 points depending on the price of the underlaying. But thus I can determine if
a level is strong or weak. And 40 Is a strong level.

Conclusion

As soon as AMC broke 40 I knew this level was of importance. Right now there are about 20,000 call contracts counting 2 million shares. And the shares trading volume on my platform indicated.

I converted my 21 January long Puts into diagonal Spreads by selling Puts at $37 Strike to receive a credit. This short put is expiring on September 24th.

So, i dont think AMC will close below 40 this week. I bought 100 shares, went long. Lets see if the Apes will eat the bait.

Today, Thursday 26th, trading volume of AMC waned at New York lunch time. It is sitting at 32% and it seems the steam is out.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Featured Post

One Day before GDP Release. Whats up with the Qs?

The 28 May 365/385/315/295  QQQ  Iron Condor circles between 25% and 30% P/L. If it hits 30% today I will take it off. If it waits until tom...

Popular Post