The AMC battle will end the week as predicted.

 I said yesterday and the day before:

"The Market Maker Sweet Spot moved slightly from $40-38 to $38-35. At $38-35 closing of the week it will have the Market Maker paying out about 5.6 million Dollars. At $33 it would be $11 million so they will stay above that and at $40 it rapidly goes up in costs for them. They will stay below that. Range trading tomorrow as today and Friday will be closing at around 35-36."

We saw today, Thursday 7/29, that the Market Maker cut off the movement at $40 and they succeeded. They handled the situation very well today as the past 2 weeks.

WHY?

The Apes could not come up with call option trading volume! Under 60 million shares traded, falling short on 30% average trading volume. And you have to be above by a lot to make a lot of price movement. This didnt happen. And it will not happen tomorrow either. It would be a miracle. But miracles happen.

What was going on?

Dont trade the first 30 minutes of a day. The Market Makers are loaded with orders from the Investment banks or hedge funds. They get processed first per computer. Here was high volume and the price went up. Since it hit $40 and I said this is the limit for the Market Maker they sold a bunch of shares and created what we call a "Dark Cloud", This candle went down 50% of the first candle with quite a lot of volume. Then the apes came in and were buying their calls for next week because they only buy for one week in advanced because they like to pay a lot of commission to the broker to make them rich. Trade huge volumes and as much as possible.

There was also Put option buying going on but more in the afternoon since the trade volume was 155,000 contracts, of which 63% were call options and 37% were put options. Thus, there is still the sentiment leaning to the upside of AMC with 2:1.

The volume disappeared after 2.5 hours and the Market Maker took over after their lunch break. AMC, again at the $40 level, slid all the way back to $38 at closing. And 37 after market hours. $37-38 is the Sweet Spot of the MM, remember. The MM started selling their excessive long positions to drive the price down, to run the apes out of business. They know exactly where your levels are. And I will tell you as I did before.

And here is the Market Maker Sweet Spot.

Market Maker Bet

                Strike     Calls ITM   Puts ITM       Total pot. Loss for MM

AMC @ $30 $411,400 $18,904,850 $19,316,250 

AMC @ $33 $523,600 $10,399,550 $10,923,150 

AMC @ $35 $676,000 $5,592,150 $6,268,150 

AMC @ $36 $1,304,400 $4,245,150 $5,549,550 

AMC @ $37 $2,138,400 $3,148,850 $5,287,250 

AMC @ $38 $3,434,700 $2,284,350 $5,719,050 

AMC @ $40 $6,631,300 $1,140,250 $7,771,550 

AMC @ $42 $13,358,000 $642,450 $14,000,450 

AMC @ $44 $22,467,950 $370,600 $22,838,550 

Open contracts to expire tomorrow are 31,683 Put contracts and 70,000 Call contracts. Here is something to think about. 

If next week the trading volume will not go above 60% average the Market Maker will be able to handle the price of AMC like a walk in the park. They will be in control of excessive 3.1 million short positions they can always buy back to drive the price up next week!!!

But they also have now additional 7 million long positions in AMC shares to SELL next week in order to drive the price down. 

This means in order to drive the price up:  

• Firstly, you MUST buy at least the amount of contracts next week as you did this week to keep the price at the existing level since 70,000 contracts expire tomorrow. You have to match the amount to make NO impact AT ALL!
• Secondly, you have to come up with the same volume on top of it to move the price above the existing price level.
• Thirdly, that pressure MUST have longer expiration terms than one week, which becomes much more expensive for the apes and they dont see it. They just eat bananas and the more you promise the more they follow.
• Fourthly, you MUST match every Put option that is bought DELTA wise, means every PUT option will eliminate a CALL option with the same DELTA. You must match that trading volume to drive the price up! With an assumed 30,000 Put options this week, for next week means you have to eliminate them, too.

All over all you need at least 170,000 Call option contract buying next week, which should result in a trading volume of 100% average. And that is only true if the Bears keep sleeping and there are not some 30% avenger Apes turning their backs on the Bulls and walk away.

My conclusion

AMC will not go above $40 tomorrow, because at this level the headache for the Hedgies starts to accumulate. We can also see how well they handled today with a 30% trading volume and yesterday with a 40% and last week with 50% and 60%. They are exactly there where they want to be. The trading volume is fading.

The "Sweet" Sweet Spot is at $37 Dollars now, but either way 38 or 36 is fine. But for sure they also will prefer to go to $35 instead to 40 and to $33 instead to $42. The lower side is cheaper for the Market Makers.

Nothing will change with a low trading volume. 

Compared to this week and I assume here ladies and gentlemen, next week the Ape Army could keep their price level if they can buy 70,000 Call option contracts plus 70,000 contracts for the long position of AMC shares that expire Friday (7 million shares), plus the equivalent of DELTA neutral Call options for 30,000 Put Options = 170,000 Call contracts. A daily trade volume at around 100% could make that happen. 

Otherwise it is easier to drop the price of AMC since short positions in shares are less than half of the Call contracts due to expired Put options. I think actually only 30% were puts in average. This means to drop AMC you might only need to cover 30% of Call contracts delta wise. It will be easier to break through the downside if the apes cannot make it happen next week.

Read this carefully.

Drink some Moonshine first before boarding the rocket ship.

The Ape Army fell short today, again.

Where did all the apes go? 

They left the battle since three days. More bananas on other trees?

The trading volume of the Ape Army leveled at 40% of the average volume today. Far less than I expected. This is their last day today before Judgement Day. As I said they had to come up with 250 million trades but made only 70 million. Thus, I consider this week for AMC done. The Market Maker Sweet Spot moved slightly from $40-38 to $38-35. At $38-35 closing of the week it will have the Market Maker paying out about 5.6 million Dollars. At $33 it would be $11 million so they will stay above that and at $40 it rapidly goes up in costs for them. They will stay below that. Range trading tomorrow as today and Friday will be closing at around 35-36.

IF IF IF the apes will not come up with 200 million Dollars. And who takes a long position on Call options with 1 day expiration?? Lotto 6/49, just 10 times so expensive.

Next:

There are about 80,000 Calls at play (Open Interests) of which 57,400 will expire this Friday. These carry a value of about 85 million Dollars for the Market Maker.
BTW, AMC MM are mostly from Goldman and Sachs. The Ape Army contributed enormously to their Q2 earning report! Congratulations!

The Put Volume of Open interests is about 52,000 contracts of which 36,000 expire this Friday. These carry about 34 million Dollars for the MM.
The upper Resistance Level sits at $50 still with only 9,000 call contracts.
The resistance at $40 consist of about 12,000 contracts only. This was much higher in the past. The steam seems to be out.

The support ZONE starts at $35 with 6,000 contracts (600,000 shares), $34 with 6,000 and $32 with 5,000. This support level is a little stretched out and hence I call it a zone.

Today came 23,000 PUTs and 15,000 CALLs new into the game. This means the wind is turning. The CPR is 155%, for every bought Call option today, there were 1.55 Puts bought. Interesting to note! But also here the Avenger Apes do the mistake to buy lottery tickets, 3 days of expiration or max one week. You cannot win a battle without commitment. We flush them all down the toilet on Friday. The only hedges I see are still placed at the $20 with 6,500 contracts as insurance for an AMC collapse for stock holders, Married Puts.

CPR for this week is at 59.6%. Call to Put Ratio next week so far will be 69.5%, which looks bearish to me. But this can and will change on Tuesday.

If you are an Avenger Ape you should buy PUTs At the Money (ATM) and not 5 or 10 Dollars lower. The MM sitting on so many shares now that they dont even have to short AMC when you buy a put! But they have much less short positions at that level than log positions due to the fact that the apes pumped a lot of Call Options into the market with... Lo and behold.... one week expiration. Not so many puts. Thus, the resistance is lighter to the down side.

They just try to keep the stock in a range. The market maker still makes money on commission and slippage.

Remember, when you buy a call the MM buys the underlaying asset, but he already has all the shares from the last three weeks. You just pay him commission to take part in the lottery, but he doesnt spend any money. If the price drops too low he buys back his shorts, if it gets too high he sells AMC.

AMC will stay under $39 and closing at $37 for tomorrow and closing the week at $35- 36 if the Apes dont come up with truck loads of money. That we will see.
The Hedgies are prepared now. They learn quickly. Get your popcorn ready.

BTW, all the data I collect are publicly available. Learn basic Excel and analyze the data. But this requires some effort and success is not guaranteed. 90% of trading is research and data collection und only 10% is clicking buttons. 

Tuesday update on the AMC Battle.

 What's going on?

I was expecting a much higher trading volume for AMC. But it barely reached 30% of the average. A further indication that the steam is out. Tomorrow is the last day for the Ape Army to advance the price beyond $40.

As outlined yesterday the Sweet Spot of the Market Maker lays under $40 and above $35. This is their spot where they make the most money and have to pay out the least.

The Apes did not board the rocket ship, "to the moon, bro". Not today. The resistance Level at $40 to $41 is backed up by about 54,000 call contracts, or 5,400,000 shares. Remember, the MM are sitting on an endless supply of shares form all the previous expiration dates. 

To understand this, consider the Ape Army is not buying longer term options because they dont know about it or they are too expensive for them. Now, every time some "trader" buys a call option the Market Maker buys the 100 underlaying stocks of AMC. He goes long on the stock, he owns the shares!!

Now since apes only think 7 days in advance we all know that your option expires the next Friday. 

What is going to happen?

The "trader", or better said gambler, now lost all his or her money. The option expires worthless, OTM, "Out Of the Money". The market maker still has the shares. And he might hold on to them to wait for the next week. Another Monday and Tuesday and the Ape Army is buying Call options WITHIN THE SAME PRICE RANGE we see AMC since ...???? Mid of July. AMC prices went down since beginning of July! The market maker sold their shares and cashed in and hence dropped the price. And now that the price dropped to Mid July, the MM also could buy back their "short" positions. The price went up again, a little.

The AMC is trading in a range now, and the MM are keeping their shares of your weekly expiring call options and dont even have to buy any when some "trader" comes back on Monday and buys more calls at the same price! The MM already owns the shares and doesnt need to buy them. He might sell some to drop the price.

Whaaaat???

Yes, This is one major reason why AMC is not breaking those levels. The Market Makers coordinate their defense and the Ape Army cannot break resistance levels.

Today is Tuesday and the trading volume was low. And if the Apes cannot give it to the "Hedgies" on Wednesday then the game is over for this week. I will watch the volume and it must surpass the average volume by at least 150% to break above $42 and gain just a little profit or to break even for the $40 - $41 Call Options. Will there be a trading volume of 250 million shares tomorrow?? I dont think so. But who am I to tell you where to lose your money.

Today

The Call / Put Ratio for this week as of today is 39%. And all next week is empty and the ratio grows to 63% Put options.

So far there will expire 140,000 Call options in 3 days and 55,000 Put options. 

Today "traders" bought "ONLY" about 38,000 call options and 24,000 Put options. A very low trading volume, I must say. 

Market Maker Sweet Spot

We can see where they lose the least amount of money. Between $40-38. But even $35 would be ok compared to the past few weeks and how much was at stake. 10 times more.

The distribution of the Supply and Resistance levels. shows only two major zones and they all get wiped out on Friday.

$40-41 Resistance Level with around 53,000 contracts or 5,3 million shares. A third of what it was.

$36-34 Support Level with around 22,000 contracts or 2.2 million shares. Thats it my friends. 

Make your bets. 

I am short trading AMC, I can wait long term

AMC started fighting slowly on Monday

With a predicted closing of around 37-38 on Friday AMC shares rose higher on Call option buying today. The Put Call ratio is 0.44, which means for every existing Call option there are about 0.44 Puts options out there. The majority of people believe that this bankrupt company will rise from the ashes and go to the Moon!

The general trading volume was about 98 million shares or 50% of the average. Not like last Wednesday and Thursday when it surpassed the average volume. Tuesday and Wednesdays are the most important days for option traders since the market makers will follow or give you the price direction.

All over all there exist a Call Option resistance level at $40 with 2.65 million shares. The next level up is sitting at $45 with about 1.30 million shares and the next one up is at $50 with 1,3 million shares

And there is a Put Option support level at $35 with 1.45 million shares.

We can see that the option volume is pretty low. It tended to be 10 fold. If we assume that there will be two busy days for AMC, can the Ape Army buy another 400,000 call contracts? they would need to come up with about 120 million Dollar, expiration 4 days, and willing to lose it all. 

Will they go to the moon, bro?

We can see another AMC trend. Over 95% off all option buys are expiring end of THIS week. They are cheap and they are a gamble. Money down the drain. Option contracts for next week and beyond are sparsely seeded.

What is the Market Maker Sweet Spot for this week so far?

The sweet spot is under $40 and above $36. My bet is that this will be the price range for this week if the Ape Army cannot come up with 120 million Dollar for more lottery tickets. 

And when all options expire on Friday, 50,000 Put options with a value of about 50 million Dollar and 121,000 Call Options with a value of about 83 million Dollars, the market maker will have more long shares and might sell them. But this might happen only if there is a two week of calm sea ahead. MM are NOT shareholders or traders, they make the market and provide liquidity! So dont kid yourself. 

With a stock price at 43 the payout for the Market Maker would be around 28 million Dollars for Call Options and $600,000 for Put Options. If they can keep the price at 40-38 the payout for both, put and call options, would be around 8.5 million Dollars only. Dont forget that the market maker are sitting on sheet loads of shares due to the mistake the ape army is doing. Their attacks only go from Monday to Friday. And every Friday the Ape Army, except a few that came in early, loses big time, big money. Bring me your pay check bro.

Lets see what will happen, this is just the Monday. The week is still ahead and it is Earning Report season.

AMC settled at $37 as predicted

The trading volume was cut in half today and the steam is out. Even though the Call Put Ratio dropped to 0.66 today, which means for every CALL Option out there are 0.66 PUT Options out there. But we also see that 90% of the trades today were all within a one week horizon. 

Gamblers. Just put your money there and leave the table.
The bank takes it all.

There are about 168,000 Put options to expire this Friday and about 262,000 Call option. I also will say that when a Call option goes one Dollar into the money, there will be no profit for the option holder. Very little if at all. 

The huge Call option Barrier is at $40. about 35,000 contracts the Market Maker do not want to pay out and hence they will try to keep the price below that. Remember the Market maker also makes money when your calls actually go into the money. They have their positions covered, they bought the stock, the underlaying. When the call goes up and get sold back to the MM, the MM sells the shares for a higher price. He makes money on commissions and wins on the slippage. If the option expires worthless he gets the commission, no slippage but holds the stock. When you start buying Calls on Monday the Market maker already has the stock at hand

There are also about 22,000 Put option sitting at the $40 level. All of them will expire and since the Call options numbers are bigger it is less risky for the Market Maker to stay below $40. And even at 38 or 39 Dollar closing price tomorrow there is nothing lost with the Put options that are one Dollar in the money!

Thus my prediction is the price will stay at the $39 level and might slide to 38 by the end of the trading day.

And all of this depends if the apes can get their money together and chip it all in to run the price up so that their other bros can profit from it. But in the market everybody is your enemy. Dont wait for help. And today, after two strong trading days on Tuesday and Wednesday, the trading volume dropped by 50%. This is an indicator to me that the Market Maker are ready for the battle and have an excessive amount of shares. They didnt have to load up today. Their guns are full of powder. They will haven even more on Monday, which they will sell to the market and drop the price slowly.

The biggest mistake the Ape Army is doing betting on short terms. To the Moon, Bro!! All on board. if you follow the Option exchange then you would know that all those bets are gambler bets. Short term. They go off in smoke in a week.

Next week so far, there will be about 10,000 call option sitting at the $40 level and about the same amount at the $50 level. Thats it. Very little. 

And there are 6,500 Puts sitting at the $20 Level, which might be insurance, married Puts. They have a 2 months expiration left.

Lets see Monday and lets see how it works out tomorrow.

Here the Ape Army tries another Attack on the Hedgies of AMC

It is amazing to watch that the market just continues upward after only ONE day of decline!

Up to the moon, bro!

I dont think so. The Call /Put Ratio is still 1.5 and the tide is turning. Yes, we reached average trading volume of 173 million shares but this is the exception. The fundamentals are just not supporting it. Remember, put or call options "ATM" cost the novice trader a fortune, about 1,500-1,700 Dollars a piece. There are cheaper options out there to trade. But who am I to tell you where to waste your money.

Here is a picture of the distribution of AMC options. Yes there is a huge support at $30 where the Market Maker dont want the price to drop, for now, unless they want to pay out all the ITM Puts! That would be around 29 million Dollars. NOPE, they wont let that happen this week. But look at the second graph for next week. A totally different picture. It is thinned out. Not much happening there.

Then there is the price above $42. Yes, all Put options would expire worthless with  Day to Expiration (DTE) this Friday. But more call options would come into play and the Market Maker would lose about 32 million Dollars.

On the other hand if the price stays  between $35-37 the Market Maker would have to pay out only 1 million dollars in Call option and 4 million in Put options. This makes the most business sense to me, this is what I call the Market Maker Sweet Spot. This is the center of gravity.

We will see. I am not an financial advisor or an advisor to the market. The market does what it will. Dont take my word for it. Do your own research.

And so it starts

The VIX jumped higher today and nipped on the 25 level, which is my level to consider alternatives to long CALL-position. With this jump my SPY Vertical Bear-Call run into 40% profit. Great I thought! For the QQQs I still have to wait. They are still slightly under water. Stocks might drown since it looks like that fundamentals are taking over and that means fear of inflation will take over and uncertainty will increase due to mixed and inactive messages from the FOMC.

Be careful folks. It is NOT an easy market right now!

Option Levels of AMC

I closed my PUT on AMC since it was to expire this week on Friday. This also was a roller coaster. But great in the end.

I bought another PUT Option on Friday to continue, what I think will be a slow death sentence for AMC. 

We also can see from previous posts on AMC that the PUT Strike levels around $35 have been expired. And the trading volume is reduced.

WHY?

AMC is a bankrupt company and the price is over inflated. Also, a lot of apes sitting on those shares and many bought them for above 35 Dollars. They are in the red right now. 

The trading volume is reaching 50% at NY lunch time, 12 PM EST. But the CALL to PUT option Ratio is about 1.72. This means for every call option there are 1.72 put options out there. The tide is turning. 

I will take that shot and wait for the panic selling. Lets sink the ship to $20!

Above $35 is a hopeful place for the Apes. Lot of Bananas to eat. I dont think the MM will go pass $35 because they would have to start paying out winning trades.

And the same is true for the $30 PUT Level. Market Maker might stay below $35 to eliminate all CALLS on the upside, and they might stay above $30 to starve all PUT holders to death, on the downside of AMC.

There are about 50,000 PUT Options to expire around the $33-$28 Strike level this Friday. They account for 5 million shares. If they go 5 Dollars in the money (ITM) it would cost the MM about 25 million Dollars.

The market Maker will wait for that and cash in. I doubt that AMC will drop below $31 this week, IF THEY CAN KEEP THE LEVEL and that is what they want. The MM also still have a lot of shares. If they have to "short" AMC due to Put buying they might sell AMC shares at the same time to keep the price up, at the current level. But who knows. I am not the market and I am not an adviser to the market.

But that is what I think. AMC wont drop below 30 Dollars this week but maybe next week.

Here are the levels that need to be deleted coming Friday so that we can continue sinking the ship. 

AMC - Option Level Analysis

After getting the data on Option Trading today we can see where the levels are and what the sweet spot of the Market Makers are. Their "Sweet Spot" is where they want the price to be to make the most amount of money.

This means, they dont want it to drop below the PUT levels so that they would have to pay them all out.

Vis Versa, they also do not want the price to get above the Call buyers level since that also would mean that they have to pay them out.

The today closing price and trading range will be between

Under $38 and above $35. 

There you have it. Monday will be another day. I still have to wait.

I bought another PUT since a lot of these call options and put options will expire this weekend. 

What will be the situation on Monday, next week?

Well, first of all the PUT volume is drastically reduced, which means the Market Maker will not be forced to buy back options that are in profit, ITM, PUT Options. 

Remember there are as of today about

• 260,000 Puts at $35 Strike Level
• 300,000 Puts at $30 Strike Level
• 100,000 Calls at $37 Strike Level 

Monday these potential payouts will be expired and this is what will be left!

• 13,000 Puts between $35-34 Strike Level
• 6,000 Puts between $30-29 Strike Level
• 2,000 Calls at $37 Strike level.

The Open Interest, open contracts, are greatly diminished. Market Maker will not let the price go up to $40 if they dont have to. And I do not see the potential. Even though the trading volume of AMC has increased to 171 million a day due to high trading yesterday, the Ape Army could NOT push the price up, and past $37 and then beyond $40 where all their CALL options are sitting.

My conclusion

There will be a Call / Put Ratio of around 1.62 for Monday, for every call options there are 1.62 put options. The reason for the price movement to the down side was due to PUT OPTION buyers. The reason of the price movement to the upside above $35 was due to the Market Maker.

The result was steady pric, just in their Sweet Spot.

Put Buyer were trying to drop the price by buying Puts and the Market Maker has to sell the underlaying asset to hedge their risk, so they turn the "Long-Call-Option" into a covered "Call", thats why the price drops. 

And on the other hand to keep the price up, even though there were not enough Apes to buy Calls, the Market Maker had to buy Shares in excess to balance the Put Buyer. Keeping the price steady around 35-37.

NOW, there will be a lot of excessive shares on their books and they will have to get rid off them over time, which will drop the price. 

• If low PUT trading will occur next week the MM might buy more excessive shares
• If trading volume will be low and Apes come back to buy more idiotic CALL OPTIONS the price will go up. But that chance they had in the past 2-3 weeks. Nothing happened. No more money. Burnt out fellas.
• If there will be moderate Put buying the MM might be able to cover. They will try to keep the price above the big LONG-PUT-Levels. 
• If the Put volume will increase dramatically the price will drop.

I bought a 186 Days to Expiration PUT at 37 Strike!

Fundamental Analysis wins in the long run. AMS price target is at $5.84

AMC will crash or slowly suffocate

A great analytic article about AMC and why it is on life support.

Warren Buffett and the interpretation of financial statements:

"As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too)."

 AMC-where-diamond-hands-to-the-moon-and-hodl-get-crushed?

Analyzing Norwegian Cruise Line's Unusual Options Activity

14 Jul 2021 01:41:57 PM | Benzinga

On Wednesday, shares of Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH) saw unusual options activity. After the option alert, the stock price moved down to $25.73.

Sentiment: BULLISH

Option Type: TRADE

Trade Type: CALL

Expiration Date: 2023-01-20

Strike Price: $40.00

Trading Volume: 875

Open Interest: 7014

Three Signs Of Unusual Options Activity

Extraordinarily large volume (compared to historical averages) is one indication of unusual options market activity. Volume refers to the total number of contracts traded over a given time period when discussing options market activity. The number of contracts that have been traded, but not yet closed by either counterparty, is called open interest. A contract cannot be considered closed until there exists both a buyer and seller for it.

Another indicator of unusual options activity is the trading of a contract with an expiration date in the distant future. Additional time until a contract expires generally increases the potential for it to grow its time value and reach its strike price. It is important to consider time value because it represents the difference between the strike price and the value of the underlying asset.

Contracts that are "out of the money" are also indicative of unusual options activity. "Out of the money" contracts occur when the underlying price is under the strike price on a call option, or above the strike price on a put option. These trades are made with the expectation that the value of the underlying asset is going to change dramatically in the future, and buyers and sellers will benefit from a greater profit margin.

Understanding Sentiment

Options are "bullish" when a call is purchased at/near ask price or a put is sold at/near bid price. Options are "bearish" when a call is sold at/near bid price or a put is bought at/near ask price.

These observations are made without knowing the investor's true intent by purchasing these options contracts. The activity is suggestive of these strategies, but an observer cannot be sure if a bettor is playing the contract outright or if the options bettor is hedging a large underlying position in common stock. For the latter case, bullish options activity may be less meaningful than the exposure a large Investor has on their short position in common stock.

Using These Strategies To Trade Options

Unusual options activity is an advantageous strategy that may greatly reward an investor if they are highly skilled, but for the less experienced trader, it should remain as another tool to make an educated investment decision while taking other observations into account.

For more information to understand options alerts, visit https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts

AMC - The Battle Continues

The Resistance Level is at $40 now.

The Market Maker want to park the price right close to it so that when expiration comes the option will be slightly OTM (Out of the money) or barely ITM (In the money). So, no one will exercise them.

At Support Level of $31 we have almost 300,000 PUT contracts = 30,000,000 shares. The MM dont want to trade them in for a loss at Expiration. Thus, they will try to keep the price ABOVE $31! That's why it will become a support level in the market and the stock is expected to bounce off of that level.

Before Trading Hours the price dropped to $31.10 and then bounced up right at opening. I expect the price to range between $35 and $31. We had a high at $37.40 but it also bounced down right away. It is sitting at around $35 now.

We will see if the "Avenger Apes" will come in for a massacre on AMC and start the slaughtering of their own kind. Remember, everybody is the closest only to himself.

I want more Avenger Apes to join the party and to buy PUT Options. Lets drive this stock down where it belongs: at $5.84.

Wage Increases do NOT give you more Buying Power - ONLY Tax Cuts Do

Inflation is here to stay. In Canada we are 1-2 months behind the US. I am just focusing on the US because it is a 10 fold bigger economy and all my trades are done in the US.

So. I put a few charts together from recent data and put some comments to it.

Keep in mind that the wages went up over 6% compared to last year. They will not come down, ever. They will stay were they are. We just can fight inflation so that wages and other costs do not rise too fast. And so are consumer goods. They will stay were they are because that is what the consumer now is used to pay. Inflation is a tax on all people and it hits the poorest the hardest. The elite and big guys dont care what you pay in the store because they they dont see their bills or have to save. 

My conspiracy is that the FOMC and Dear Leader Powell are doing it on purpose.

WHY?

The effect will be the destruction of the economy. We will slide down were people become more and more dependent on government subsidies and handouts. High inflation and over regulations will create a Black Market. 

That is the goal of the Democrat regime. Socialism or "EQUITY". Everyone will get a fair cut, the same cut, the same toothpaste. Therefore entrepreneurship must be brought to its knees, profit is greed, they say and only the big corporations shall survive because they are in bed with the socialists. The small business is a competition and hence must be eliminated. The Elites eat and you work. Not for yourself but in a big equity producing corporation. The Chinese model is coming, folks. They take your money and pay for all the programs. Not them. And if it all gets to lustful then the rich will just pack their stuff and go to the airport: Singapore.

Get your monthly bread stamps and potato ration. Only tofu and chicken because beef is evil racist. 

What should they have done?

I would have though as soon as we hit 3.5% Inflation and the S&P 500, which is also the market indicator, came back to the levels of before the Chinese Commie Virus, the FOMC should have started "tapering". That was end of November. Now we are at faster rising numbers and I will show you some and the legit source.

Now when they start "tapering" and it is not temporary but permanent and at a rising speed, they will have to hit the break hard. No 0.5% every second month or so but more like 2-3%. This will turn the Stock Market upside down. 10-20% losses? Maybe.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar

You can download the data and do your calculations and graphs. Not too difficult. Just give me the numbers, the facts and not your opinion.

Here are the numbers.

PPI Manufacturing Industry

Production Price Index. This is the inflation at the manufacturing sector. These prices will end up in the CPI because a company that has higher input costs will pass them on to the end consumer. We can clear see that the costs came down at the pandemic start and started to recover in April to January 2021. After it is increasing rapidly. Input costs are 14.14% above 2020 level. It will have various reasons.

PPI Finished Goods

These are the prices that will be sold to the Retail Industry. There is high demand, little transportation and a broken supply chain. Container prices for example are through the roof. Shipping from China is getting 2 times as expensive.

Here we can see an inflation around 9% pa!!!

Urban Wage Earners and Clerks

These prices show you the impact from free money and stay at home orders. Wage increases will increase inflation and not your buying power. The only way to increase workers buying power is to reduce taxes on them. They will have more money in their pocket to spend and it will not be an input cost for the company!! Think about it

If you increase wages you increase INPUT COSTS, operating costs of revenue for businesses and that in return will trigger inflation and will be put on your bill when you come and buy your merchandise. Wages are part of CGAC It is an idiotic concept of the left and other idiots to thing with a with a wages increase, like minimum wages that they actually help the poor. NO! Tax cuts do!

Wages are part of OPEX, Operating expenses are the remaining costs that are not included in COGS:

• Rent
• Utilities
• Salaries/wages
• Property taxes
• Business Travel

Wages rose by 5.56 and 6.04% compared to last year. This is totally the fault of liberals.

All Urban Consumer CPI, All items.

These prices represent what you pay in the store and if you want you can break all these numbers into sectors. It is all there. see link above.

And we can see that with the wage increase, hurray, the prices also go up, ohhh. The difference is what you gained of lost. But be aware there is still much more to come. You pay for more than just consumer goods, no?

CPI of Housing in US. Average

These are the housing prices. When the FOMC will start raising interest rates mortgages will go up. Qualification for a loan will become more difficult. The housing market might crash and mortgage banks will take a hit and so will the Home Builders. Go short, Buy Puts!

Residential Construction

These are the cost increases for new homebuyer. With increasing home prices and later interest rate hikes, what will happen to this market?

Construction costs go up about 0.5% a month but almost 3% a year. From start to finish this is at least a $15,000 more to pay. Did you qualify for it at the bank? We also notice that construction costs came down massively in 2020. I think this is because they were competing hard due to the China Virus.

Building Material and Suppliers

These costs are about 50% more expensive compared to last year and rising at a pace of 6.5% per month. Did you see what a sheet of drywall costs? OSB boards?

Used Cars and Trucks

Then we have this one here. The cookie of the suckie. Used cars are going up monthly by 10% folks. Here goes all your wage increase back out of the window!!! Believe me now that wage increases do not give you more money? Only tax cuts do! Unions should demonstrate against government money waste and for smaller government and for tax cuts. But not they dont, because they hate capitalism and want you to become depending on government. Hence they are for higher taxes through higher wages. Then the government can pay you subsidies. Hurray!!

AMC 

AMC did not fall below the $34 Support Level as I guessed it yesterday. I hope the Ape Avengers see the writing on the wall and that they will buy PUTS tomorrow and let the bitch fall. 

Lunch Time is over in NY

While afternoon trading often goes slowly and then against the morning move to take some profits we might see it the other way around with AMC. 

There was still a lot of buyers for CALL Options but the Bears seem to be in power now. The Apes are turning on each other. 

Fingers crossed.

Next support level at 34, will it breach or will it hold?

The end of AMC?

After ‘Black Widow’ fails to lift AMC stock, retail traders are trying to become their own ‘Avengers’

black-widow-fails-to-lift-amc

As pointed out last night, AMC might struggle to breach the 35 level. At 08:39 MDT AMC lost another 11%. It breached the 50% Fibonacci. Trading volume already reached 30%

AMC has 56.6% PUT contracts and 43.3% Call contracts. The ratio is 1.3. The Market Maker have to sell the stocks to cover the PUTs. If we gather them all from this week the ratio is about 2

We also can see that barely anyone buys CALL options at the 35 level. There is nothing to drive the price upwards. This is all open and cluttered with PUT options.

All together to see where the Support Level is

We will follow the story. Lunch time in NY. Will be quiet for the next hour

AMC - The Ape Saga continues

I am still in this trade and my PUT has 9 more days to go. I should have bought a longer expiration cycle. 

Today it dropped below $39 and my strike is 50. So, I am ITM. Due to the fact that I bought this PUT when the volatility was much higher I paid more money then I would today in an less volatile AMC environment.

Anyway. Lets hope the price will further drop.

I noticed that there are almost twice as many PUT options now than before.

The Call to Put Ratio was 0.3 then 0.6 and now for end of next week it is 1.90. This means for every CALL option there are 1.90 PUT options out there there.

Here the PUT options

Here sorted out in a graph to see clearly where the support and resistance levels are.
The price at closing and After Hours was $37.13.

The $40 Support was already overrun today. 23,000 PUT Options at the $40 mark. Remember there are twice as many PUT Options at this level than CALL Options. The price just dropped.

The MM will stay below $40. WHY? Because I believe that there are also 11,000 Call contracts out there and more above that and 10,00 at 45. This squeeze is over and they could NOT bring the price up today even they were trading at 50% of the average daily trading volume.

Next level down is $35 with another 20,000 Contracts = 2 million shares. This will be a hard one and I hope we reach it tomorrow. Some Apes might now join in the anti-squeeze and the hedgies want to get back to normal. Lets drop the price of AMC. Guys, buy some PUT Options.

Will the The Fed - Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, raise Interest rates?

Ok, here we have it.

In 2001 we had the DOT.com crises where the SPX fell by 800 points, or 51%. The decline was steady and lasted 2 years until it started to recover.

The RSI came out from "Over Bought" territory, developed a Divergence and the MA5 confirmed with a crossing below the MA20, the blue line on the monthly charts!

Then in 2008 the Financial Crisis hit. The SPX just came back from the losses of 2001 and fell again into the abys. SPX fell by 902 points or 58%. It took the SPX 1.5 years to reach bottom.

Also here the RSI fell below the 70% Mark and the MA5 crossed below MA20. The SPX closed below MA20!!!

All your wins and savings of the past 7 years were wiped out and landed in the pocket of the smart money. Why? Because you make more money in a downfall if you know options and shorting! It took 5 years to recover here. And then one year after that oil prices collapsed.

During this time the crises developed AFTER many years of increasing interest rates. You could say even though the rise of interest rates will damper the economy I see here that increased interest rates leading the crises. 

Maybe the rise of interest rates will not hinder a crises to develop?

We see interest rates in bars and inflation in the line charts. And the green circle tell you when the crises started to hit and the SPX fell below the indicators.

The Wuhan Virus Crises came in early 2020 and the US made actually a fast recovery. Maybe it was only the mild version of the Military lab in Wuhan? This crisis was not due to economic reasons and hence the indicators were NOT triggered in the monthly charts. In the weekly, yes it did. But compared to the other crisis this Wuhan thing was mild!!

But this also means that everything that built up before and was not corrected yet needs to be corrected. The market will do it. We still have the housing bubble, again. We have inflation and we have low interest rates. RSI is in "Over Bought" territory. 

Here is the SPX over the years. We can see what makes the difference.

1. While the Dot Com Crises happened in a low inflationary environment and the decline was steady over 2 years, 51%

2. The Financial Housing Crises happened in an high inflationary environment. Normally you raise rates, then when the inflation settles you decrease the rates and when the inflation further decreases you lower rates even further. But in the Housing Crises a lowering of the Interest rates led to more lending since the rates where coming down. More low income families were tricked into mortgages, which then let to the bubble exploded and the market dropped by 58%! This event took 1.5 years to reach bottom level.

3. Now the Feds lowered the interest rate at the beginning of the China Wuhan Virus Crises, which was great to give the economy a boost in this horrible attack from China. But we also can see that we have similarities to the housing crisis. We have an inflation at 5% and lowest interest rates ever. Hence the SPX is taking off like a rocket ship and is creating a gap where it is flying way above the mean, any mean, here the MA20. The Wuhan Crisis in stock markets terms was ridicules short. 2 Months! 34% drop.

4. In my option the interest rate should have been raised when the SPX moved ABOVE 3,500 points and the inflation hit 3% because this is above the pre epidemic level. They missed the train. Or they didnt want to take it because there is another one coming, a faster one, a bigger one?

It is also noteworthy that the implementing of new regulations can choke an economy and do work against inflation well. This happened under Obama in the late 2014 until Trump came into office.

What is next?

There has to be a correction. Even it might not be a Recession or Stagflation but something has to give. the rate of increasing stock prices and so housing for other reasons, cannot go on for ever. The Prices have to meet the averages. And inflation does NOT seem to be temporary at all. Grocery prices are up and so is everything else. 

The Feds will raise interest rates in near future. The conditions now are worst then they were in 2016 when the Feds started slowly and then faster increasing the rates. They have all the reasons and more NOW than they had before INCLUDING the Financial and housing crises.

I expect a market correction of 20-25% and I base this solely on the GAP that has develop and that the prices must meet the average. How long will it take? I bet on six months fast and furious. I base this on the previous drops and the SPX can drop by 900 points to 3,500 points in six months. 

Lets watch the different indicators and the RSI in the monthly charts to see if the SPX drops below the MA20 horizon. But before you see that manifesting in in weekly charts the blood bath and massacre is already ongoing for the same time. So lets watch the leading indicators.
PMI, CPI, CSI and housing starts and authorized permits, the Bond rates!!

But this is just the opinion of a crazy talker