AMC Update September, 29

The Army of the Apes seems to recede and long term speculators are taking the spot.

Beside that the average volume sunk below 50% from end of August the daily trading is now only about 30% of that. 30 million daily trades compared to 176 million average trades on August 25^th. But at the same time the put trading volume increased from 32% to 0.68%. It seems the bears are gearing up. On Tuesday there were slightly more puts traded as calls. The ratio was 1.02!!!

The option trading volume reaches about 330,000 contracts and with it the IV Ranking dropped to 30% from its value end of August of 23%. I want to say it is 7.4% now. This is the reason why my 37 PUT is still not in profit at $35 even it is ITM

The DTC, Day to Cover, also increased from 0.5 in August to 1.1 now. But this number IMO is understated due to the fact that DTC is calculated from the average trading volume and this is in a steady decline. This number is not correctly calculated in many sites.
“It is essential to remember that the short interest ratio and short interest are not the same. Short interest measures the total number of shares that have been sold short in the market”, Investopedia DOT com.
I think the real number is around 2 days since the daily trading volume never reached the average volume since end of August and is in steady decline. And the short float is pretty much steady.

With the share trading volume dropping to 39 million on Tuesday and a short float of slightly above 97 million shares (a slight increase from 96 million) the Short Ratio stands at 248%!!! This means that there are about 2.5 times more short sellers in the market than the whole amount of traded shares, which is 39 million

This is not the Army of Apes. Why is this?

The apes buy short term, one week and max 2 week options. We see an increase in the Day To Expiration terms:

On the Put side

• 42 PUT 171 DTE
• 42 PUT 80 DTE
• 38 PUT 115 DTE
• 35 PUT 80 DTE
• 34 PUT 80 DTE
• A massive wall of 27 PUT 171 DTE with about 9,000 contracts
• 24 PUT 80 DTE with about 1,000 contracts, minor level
• 24 PUT 171 DTE
• 23 PUT 115 DTE

On the Call side

• 145 CALL 80 DTE with about 37,000 contract
• 145 CALL 115 DTE with about 95,000 contract
• 120 CALL 80 DTE
• 120 CALL 115 DTE
• 110 CALL 115 DTE
• 100 CALL 290 DTE
• 100 CALL 479 DTE
• 95 CALL 80 DTE
• 80 CALL 479 DTE
• 75 CALL 479 DTE
• 50 CALL 290 DTE
• 45 CALL 115 DTE
• 40 CALL 171 DTE

This shows me that the long term speculators are digging in knowingly that AMC will not rise before a major dip if at all. My most outstanding call trade is a 100 CALL expiring January 23, 2023 with 2,126 contracts. Price Tag 2.126 million Dolla. Well, good luck!

After all this being said the MM Sweet Spot stays the same for now and that AMC is trading below it indicates a lot of downward pressure. But we will see where AMC settles on Friday. I would not be surprise if AMC made a 4 dollar race to 39.